In plain terms
The Antarctic Treaty System has maintained cooperative governance for 65 years. The Madrid Protocol mining ban review becomes eligible in 2048 — 8 years after the 138-year reset cycle's May 2040 transit.
The Antarctic Treaty System has maintained cooperative governance for 65 years. The Madrid Protocol mining ban review becomes eligible in 2048 — 8 years after the 138-year reset cycle's May 2040 transit
The divergence: Does the ATS survive the 2032 spike and the 2040 reset? Treaty compliance rests entirely on the Shadow of the Future — the expectation that cooperation today ensures reciprocal cooperation tomorrow. If the 2032 spike produces systemic disruption (financial collapse, grid instability, geopolitical fragmentation as the engine projects), the Shadow of the Future weakens and treaty compliance becomes voluntary in a world where compliance may not be rational. China (5 stations, BeiDou/intelligence signals (SIGINT), geological data) and Russia (10 bases, Rosgeologiya shelf mapping) have pre-positioned for this scenario. The Dufek Massif (platinum/chromium analogous to Bushveld), Larsen Basin (269 MMBO oil), and 90% of planetary freshwater become strategic assets in a resource-scarce post-reset world