Maximus Title IV-D Child Support Concentration — Sub-Thesis Empirically Null Q1 FY2026

Pre-registered Phoenix-Cycle falsification (BST III paper protocol, Report #86 May 8 2026). The original Maximus federal-services-throughput-concentration thesis explicitly posited that Maximus controlled the Title IV-D Child Support Enforcement substrate as one of four-or-more unrelated population-facing federal program categories constituting single-point-of-control architecture. Empirical falsification: in December 2025 (Q1 of Maximus's fiscal year 2026), the company finalized the divestiture of its U.S. child support business, recording a $9 million gain and removing $25 million from forward revenue guidance. As of Q1 FY2026, Maximus's Title IV-D market share is exactly 0%. The sub-thesis is empirically null. Engine framing: this falsification does not collapse the broader H1 (which confirmed Maximus dominance in CMS 1-800-MEDICARE at 100% prime) but it establishes that Maximus's footprint contracts AS WELL AS expands across the federal-services substrate. The structural-recurrence pattern (Apex b) operates through selective concentration, not through monolithic capture of every population-facing program category. Recorded transparently per the third-consecutive H1-not-cleanly-confirmed deep-research audit pattern (May 6 COVID Wealth Transfer / May 7 Hondius / May 8 Boring / May 8 Maximus). Falsifiability discipline: the divergence resolves only if Maximus re-enters Title IV-D operations through acquisition or new contract award before 2032; otherwise the exit is permanent and the federal-services-substrate concentration model accepts a documented null vector.