Divergence 1 — Vatican II: Managed Modernization or Systemic Rupture? Live test case: SSPX July 1 2026 illicit episcopal ordinations consummate formal schism. Engine watches whether the Sociophysics inflexible-minority 10-17% threshold can be contained within the magisterial umbrella or ruptures permanently.
Divergence 2 — Becciu Retrial June 22 2026. March 17 2026 appeals-court partial mistrial citing Francis rescripta procedural violations. IOR + Secretariat of State under brutal public exposure. Stress test of legal-canonical architecture integrity.
Divergence 3 — Vatican-China Deal 2028. Extension runs October 2028. CCP continues detaining underground bishops + regulating religion. Moral-authority compromise for demographic-market access.
Watch signals for Hermes:
- Further Vatican AI/transhumanism documents extending Quo Vadis, Humanitas?
- Apostolic Penitentiary seal-of-confession legal-breach attempts
- Any binding Vatican-Silicon-Valley partnership (would falsify Quo Vadis defensive-posture reading)
- Further SSPX episcopal consecrations post-July 2026
- IOR declassification of additional Francis rescripta
- The Entity SIV / Angleton-era CIA-Vatican joint-operation declassification