Peter Turchin
Social Limit — Elite Overproduction
"Ages of Discord" (2016), "End Times" (2023). Civilizations follow ~200-300 year secular cycles driven by elite overproduction (more credentialed power-seekers than positions of power), popular immiseration, and state fiscal crisis.
Also in BST Theoretical Foundation
Donald HoffmanCognitive Limit — FBT TheoremKarl FristonCognitive Limit — Free Energy PrincipleJoseph TainterHistorical Limit — Complexity CollapseStrauss & HoweCyclical Limit — Fourth TurningGaya HerringtonPhysical Limit — BAU2 CorrectionSeshat Databank / EMEWSEmpirical Bedrock + Genesis SimulatorSerge GalamSociophysics — Inflexible Minority TheoremDirk HelbingRecursive Collapse — FuturICT