Public Narrative: Iran’s nuclear program. Reality: Iran had 440.9kg at 60% enrichment (IAEA) but was NOT actively weaponizing (US intelligence conceded threshold capability, not active bomb program).
New engine divergence (Mar 30): Nuclear Proliferation Cascade — if Iran exits NPT (politicians pushing for it under bombardment), does Saudi Arabia activate the 'Pakistani bomb on retainer'? Does Turkey pursue independent capability? Egypt? South Korea and Japan, watching US overextended? A world with 15 nuclear states is structurally different from one with 9. The engine currently models Iran as theater-level. NPT exit makes it structural.