May 2 2026 Vatican-vs-Tech audit ripple. Tracks the projected May 15 2026 release window of Pope Leo XIV's first social encyclical (Vatican leaks per Zenit + Magisterium AI + Church Life Journal + Gaudium Press + Catholic Herald). Engine reading per substrate-vs-announcement morphology: the encyclical is the single cleanest available falsifier of the engine's current Vatican-vs-Tech staged conflict-as-conclusion reading. Discriminator: text MANDATES restriction of Catholic institutional capital from AI-capex equity (Type-A genuine counter-force, staged conflict reading weakens) vs. text provides only philosophical framework AI firms can nominally endorse without altering deployment timelines (Type-B staged conflict, existing staged conflict substrate reinforced). Falsification: passes May 2026 unreleased OR text omits AI-labor displacement leads to Rerum Novarum homology falls to media spin rather than structural institutional policy. Forward-prediction: monitor Holy See Press Office / Dicastery for Communication for release announcement; on release, parse text for binding doctrinal language on AI-capital divestment vs philosophical-framework language; cross-reference with KoCAA + Ave Maria SRI screens within 90 days post-release.
May 11 2026: Discriminator window LIVE. Al Jazeera Tier-2 mainstream framing 'Is the Vatican standing up to Trump?' (Kim Daniels interview). Falsifier text not yet released; Rubio-to-Rome absorption-mechanism divergence remains armed. Public-discourse layer activating without ledger-layer movement.