In plain terms
The Specific scenario from the Club of Rome's World3 model (Limits to Growth, 1972; validated by Herrington 2021). BAU2 differs from the original BAU scenario by including pollution-driven feedback loops that accelerate collapse.
The Specific scenario from the Club of Rome's World3 model (Limits to Growth, 1972; validated by Herrington 2021). BAU2 differs from the original BAU scenario by including pollution-driven feedback loops that accelerate collapse. The trajectory: industrial output peaks around 2030-2035, followed by pollution-driven compounding capital stress, agricultural decline, and population decrease. Herrington's 2021 validation found that 50 years of real-world data tracked BAU2 more closely than any other World3 scenario. The engine treats BAU2 as the baseline 'physics of the system' — the trajectory that plays out if no intervention changes the structural dynamics. The current Iran war energy cascade (oil $103, fertilizer crisis, food supply disruption) is tracking the BAU2 energy leads to food leads to social stability failure chain.