Peter Turchin's quantitative framework for predicting political instability. Three variables compound: (1) Elite overproduction — too many people competing for too few elite positions (law school graduates, PhD holders, aspiring politicians). (2) Popular immiseration — declining real wages, rising costs, reduced quality of life for the general population. (3) State fiscal crisis — government revenue fails to cover obligations. When all three compound simultaneously, the result is a 'turbulent period' of civil unrest, political violence, and institutional failure. Turchin's model predicted US instability peaking in the 2020s (published 2010). The engine integrates Turchin as one of its 8 independent frameworks, and his variables are tracked across the scorecard.